Are we on the brink of a naval showdown in the Black Sea?

Bow of the Russian Heavy Cruiser MOSKVA, one of the Russian ships deployed to the Black Sea (Photo courtesey of NATO)

Recently, the U.S. Navy announced the deployment of a contingent of ships from the Sixth Fleet to bring humanitarian aid to Georgia. This deployment comes amidst reports that Russia has commenced a naval blockade of Georgia to prevent the shipment of possible weapons and humanitarian aid. Reports indicate Russian Naval ships have already stopped or turned back several merchant vessels with wheat and other bulk goods bound for Georgian ports. I have to wonder how the Russian fleet will react to the arrival of a U.S. Coast Guard cutter and a U.S. Arliegh Burke class guided missile destroyer loaded with humanitarian supplies. The U.S. command ship, the USS Mount Whitney is scheduled to arrive in the area shortly after the arrival of the first two ships. It is interesting to point out that the U.S. has decided to utilize warships for the delivery of the aid rather military sealift ships or chartered merchant vessels.

I think this move is going to test the admiralty of both the Russian and U.S. navies. If Russian allows the passage of the U.S. vessels, it may signify that ultimately it will back down against its former Cold War rival. If Russia chooses to enforce its blockade against the U.S. vessels, it will test the strategic resolve of the U.S. and may reveal the U.S.  inexperience in the realm of Russian/Georgian relations. The U.S. has relatively little experience operating naval vessels within the Black Sea. In order to reach the Black Sea, the U.S. had to seek permission from Turkey to transit the narrow and strategic Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits. The 1936 Montreux Convention governs international traffic through the straits and limits the warship tonnage that countries not bordering the Black Sea can deploy through the straits to 45,000 tons. This tonnage restriction prevents the U.S. from utilizing its two large hospital ships, the USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy which in fact Turkey has already implicitly denied permission to transit the straits.

Since the U.S. ships left from Crete, we should know in a few days what happens…but I predict it may be interesting.